The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that natural gas in underground storage fell by 89 billion cubic feet ((bcf)) in the week ending February 17th. This left storage levels 10% lower than a year ago but 7.1% higher than the five-year average.
Looking ahead, market expectations for storage changes for the week ending February 24th are a build of 1 bcf. That compares unfavorably to a draw of 67 bcf last year and a five-year average draw of 132.
In the four weeks ending March 17th, the data show a drop of 97 bcf. This average is 29 bcf slower than the same weeks last year, and about 277 bcf slower than the five-year average.
The end-of-season storage level is now expected to be 2,030 bcf. That is 447 bcf lower than last year, but 232 bcf higher than the five-year average.
Looking further down the road, the market now expects storage to peak at 3,670 bcf in the fall. That is 339 bcf lower than a year ago, and 191 bcf lower the five-year average.
The heating season could not be ending much worse, given how positive it had been. I had thought December might be the best month for natural gas prices this winter, and it turned out that way. I continue to feel it is premature to establish or maintain long positions for next winter at this time.
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