7 reasons gold estimate will blast this summer.

Gold prices have been on a bit of a roller coaster since Election Day. After the presidential vote last November sparked a “risk-on” rally for U.S. stocks, gold tumbled from more than $1,300 an ounce to under $1,150 just before Christmas. That’s a more than 11% decline — all while the S&P 500 added about 8% to the upside in the same period.By mid-April, the stock market was in a bit of a rut, and gold was creeping up on the $1,300 mark once more thanks to uncertainty in Washington, soft economic data and other trouble spots.The strength was short-lived, however; gold recently logged its worst weekly decline of an already tumultuous 2017. So what’s in store next for the volatile precious metal?Unfortunately for gold bugs, it looks like more weakness in gold prices. Here are seven reasons why:

1. Stocks keep soaring: In case you missed it, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.17%   recently revisited the 21,000 mark and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.29%  keeps hitting new all-time highs. Investors looking for a place to put their money right now are primarily looking at stocks — with good reason. Why would anyone trade equities for gold during a run like this?

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2. Investors have no fear: Despite the strong performance of U.S. stocks so far in 2017, it seems that all market pundits can talk about is “uncertainty.” But don’t confuse unpredictable voters around the world and gridlock in Washington, D.C., with a sense of impending doom on Wall Street. In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index  VIX, -1.00%   — also known as the “fear index” — just hit its lowest level in 23 years. Gold GCM7, +0.54%  thrives in an uncertain environment, but that is simply not the current state of things.

3. Commodities are cooked: It’s not just gold’s “safe haven” status that is working against it . All commodities, from crude oil to base metals, have been in a tailspin lately. Specifically, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index  SPGSCI, +0.53%   is down by about 10% from its April highs as oil has suffered a severe sell-off at the same time gold has struggled. Also, continued fears of weak demand out of China have driven iron ore to a six-month low. Raw materials and commodities aren’t seeing a lot of good news on the pricing front, and gold is getting swept up in these troubles.

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4. Miners are in trouble: After a nice recovery at the beginning of 2017, gold miners are stuck again in a cycle of pain. Major companies including Barrick Gold ABX, +1.29%   and Goldcorp GG, +0.37%   are both down more than 16% from February highs, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.10%  has gained 4% in the same period, and now shares of gold miners are approaching their December lows once more. Many smaller miners are faring even worse, as evidenced by the almost 30% decline in the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ, +1.19%   since its February peak. Not only are these declines bad for sentiment around gold, it also puts the pressure on miners to produce more in order to make their numbers and appease investors — keeping supply ample even as demand and pricing are weak.

5. Fed will keep the dollar strong: Sure, the U.S. dollar has weakened a bit more than 2% relative to its January highs. But a 12-month look at the U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.01%  , a measure of the greenback vs. a basket of other currencies including the euro EURUSD, +0.0552%  and yen USDJPY, -0.13%  , shows that the dollar is going strong. That’s largely because the Federal Reserve has embarked on a more ambitious rate-tightening schedule and has stuck to its overtures of tightening in 2017 despite some soft economic data. Specifically, the Dollar Index is up over 5% from this point in 2016 — a trend that should continue as long as the Fed remains hawkish.

6. Inflation is non-existent: Oddly enough, this hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve comes even as inflation data remains weak. The “core”  measure of Personal Consumption Expenditures is the Fed’s key data point in monitoring prices, but this measure actually declined in March — its first drop since September 2001. Longer term, the 12-month reading on PCE is just a 1.6% growth rate through March. Just as many investors see gold as a hedge on uncertainty, they also see it as a hedge on inflation. Since there’s little worry about prices, there will be no rush to pile into gold anytime soon.

7. Gold bugs keep getting burned: Aside from swing trades that last only a few months, it has been extremely difficult to make money investing in gold lately. The precious metal is down more than 30% from its 2012 peak, down roughly 10% from its summer 2014 highs, and down by double-digits from last year’s peak. Long-term and medium-term investors who have been banking on gold have been burned. It’s unlikely they will risk another round of losses.